Hurricane Gustov continues on it’s track toward the Louisiana coast and will be set to make landfall tomorrow. Gustov will likely make landfall as a dangerous category 3 hurricane and while weaker than Katrina just 3 years ago, the track just west of the Mississippi River is a big concern.

As I said yesterday, the "worse case scenario" for New Orleans from a land falling hurricane has always been a significant storm surge moving up the river, as these levees are thought to be more easily topper. The flooding from Katrina cam from Lake Pontchartrain from broken levees…which was unexpected (which is why the initial briefing from New Orleans was a very positive one after Katrina made land fall). Gustov is expected to be close to the prime location for storm surge flooding up the Mississippi. Any further west from the expected track would be bad news for New Orleans.

Damage from strong winds are of course a concern as well. Here is a part of a statement from the Slidel, LA forecast office.

IN THE AREA NEAR LANDFALL OF THE EYE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS
WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE…AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE
DESTROYED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY BE SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE COULD OCCUR TO
WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES. MANY GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL ALONG WITH
SOME EXTERIOR WALLS. ALUMINUM AND LIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN
OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL
FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS…ESPECIALLY
THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. SOME WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE
OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE…AS WELL AS INJURIES
AND A FEW FATALITIES. NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED WITH
NUMEROUS LINES AND POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN. THE AVAILABILITY OF
POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO
FAIL. NUMEROUS TREES…ESPECIALLY SMALL TO MEDIUM TREES…WILL BE
DOWNED…SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

It certainly doesn’t paint a good picture. Believe it or not, this statement is not as strongly worded as the one prior to Katrina’s landfall. None the less, you can see that Gustov is expect to create incredible damage once again to some areas hit 3 years ago.

Gustov will likely slow dramatically, but likely not until after landfall. Some of the computer models have hinted that the storm could stall less than 50 miles off shore and wobble west before making landfall closer to Texas. This has always been my gut feeling with this storm, but it simply doesn’t not look like the slowed motion will happen until later.

Say a prayer for those on the Gulf coast tonight and tomorrow.

By the way… NO KC WEATHER PODCAST TONIGHT.

More beautiful, all be it warm, weather for the weekend. Watching Gustov for mid-week moisture.

Sunday – Mostly sunny. High: 89
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Low: 67
Monday – Partly cloudy. High: 90
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance for showers and t-storms. High: 88
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and t-storms. High: 84
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and t-storms. High: 82

NO AUDIO PODCAST TODAY

New Orleans is taking initiative and evacuating the city in anticipation of the arrival of Hurricane Gustov. If I remember correctly, this is at least one day earlier than with Hurricane Katrina. Great to see! Gustov is now a dangerous category 4 hurricane and may approach category 5 status tomorrow. While Gustov would likely undergo some weakening before it makes landfall, it would still make landfall as a dangerous hurricane. In addition to the wind (which will cover a large area), a NW track into eastern LA coast has the potential to bring a significant storm surge up the Mississippi River, which has always been the "worse case" scenerio for a landfalling hurricane for New Orleans.

The track of Gustov would bring landfall somewhere in Louisiana Monday afternoon, likely near the central LA coast. However, there is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the track just prior to landfall . None the less, I’m glad to see people evacuate. The mayor of New Orleans ignored advice to evacuate from meteorologists for a day when Katrina was approaching the city. It’s safe to say that Katrina has made the authorities take a land falling hurricane seriously.

UPDATE: A FIRST look at some of the newest computer models hint that motion will slow prior to landfall, and Gustov could remain in the Gulf for a while, drifting west. While certainly possible, I’m not sure if I’d bite on it quite yet.

A beautiful holiday weekend. Watching Gustov in the Gulf of Mexico

Saturday – Mostly sunny. High: 84
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Low: 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny. High: 87
Monday – Partly cloudy. High: 89
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High: 88
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and t-storms. High: 84

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