The first dribbles of new weather data are coming in, and looks like the plains are really set up for a significant severe weather event late this afternoon into tonight.

Very strong upper-level winds combined with extreme instability and strong low-level wind sheer will create an ample environment for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and especially strong straight-line winds. The main questions for us here in Kansas City remain 2 fold.

1. Will thunderstorms be able to form in Kansas with a very strong "cap" in place. (The cap is a warm layer of air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from forming).
2. If thunderstorms form, when the reach Kansas City, will they have evolved into severe wind producers, or will they remain supercellular and tornadic? Both?

I just saw that the Storm Prediction Center center has placed us (and a HUGE area from Wichita to Minneapolis) under a HIGH risk for severe thunderstorms. In fact, they placed us in a hatched area with an incredible 60% likelyhood of seeing severe winds within 25 miles. The hatched area implies a significant threat for hurricane force winds).

More info as I have the ability to update later today. Here are a few more graphics:

The cloud cover has kept instability in check this afternoon. These clouds and will likely continue to do so through much of the afternoon. This is good news as it provides less fuel for severe thunderstorms. However, the atmosphere above the cloud deck is very unstable with steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 9C/km.  I still expect thunderstorms to bubble up this afternoon into early this evening around the area until the cold front, currently near a Manhattan to Falls City, NE line, passes through. While I’m not entirely convinced of our threat for tornadoes, I would expect some sort of severe weather watch to go up sometime this afternoon ahead of the cold front, especially if we see some of the clouds begin to scour out.

By far, the most significant severe weather should be to the south across parts of eastern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Likewise the severe weather threat close to Kansas City gets greater the further southeast you go.

While we have seem some towering cumulus clouds across parts of eastern Kansas along the cold front/dry line, we have yet to see anything break though the convective "cap". This boundary is actually moving back to the west as a lead wave of energy rounds-the-bend out of Colorado. I still expect thunderstorms to form, but it will not be until this wave of energy can impact the boundary in an hour or so, and may be just widely scattered when the do form.

The National Weather Service HAS gone ahead and posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from St. Joseph to north-central Oklahoma until 2am as I was typing. We’ll see how things progress as this next wave of energy moves into the area.

It looks like the cold front has slowed down quite a bit this afternoon. While it’s through Manhattan and Falls City, NE it still has some distance to go before it reaches the metro area. As a result, our threat for showers and t-storms will be later as well.

Dew points HAVE managed to make it to the 60 degree mark, so you’ll notice the humidity out there this evening. The increase in dew points should afford us a little more instability for thunderstorms. However, the low stratoform cloud cover still hints that most of the instability available for thunderstorms remains aloft.

BTW: I added a live chat feature to KCWeather.org on Friday. I plan to be online later this evening. Maybe we’ll have some thunderstorms to talk about.