The upper-level storm that will be effecting out weather for the next few days has progressed east a little faster than it had appeared it would last night. As a result, we are in store for a rather wet afternoon. While a steady rain will be the rule much of the afternoon, a few embedded thunderstorms may crank up the rain rates from time to time.

This is certainly a powerful storm system. Not only did it prompt severe thunderstorm watches overnight, but has also prompted a blizzard warning for parts of northwest Kansas with the Goodland weather service office calling for 7-13 inches of snow in some areas tonight into tomorrow. Luckily, nothing like that here. A wedge of dry air will wrap into the storm system tomorrow, and we may actually see some sunshine. This should allow us to warm up. While the chance is minimal, don’t be surprised if you see a few snowflakes in the air tomorrow afternoon or evening despite the morning sun.

It appears as though the NAM computer model was correct last night in bringing copious amounts of cloud cover into the area for today. We have even seen some showers across NE KS and NW MO this morning. As it stands right now, it appears as though temperatures will indeed stay in the 60s as I had forecasted, but I’m not quite sure if we’ll hit the 68 degrees I forecasted last night. We may only make the middle 60s if the we remain completely cloudy today. If the sun can mix away the cloud cover this afternoon, we should be very near that forecast of 68 degrees this afternoon.

I hope everyone has/is having a great day!

The cloud cover has kept instability in check this afternoon. These clouds and will likely continue to do so through much of the afternoon. This is good news as it provides less fuel for severe thunderstorms. However, the atmosphere above the cloud deck is very unstable with steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 9C/km.  I still expect thunderstorms to bubble up this afternoon into early this evening around the area until the cold front, currently near a Manhattan to Falls City, NE line, passes through. While I’m not entirely convinced of our threat for tornadoes, I would expect some sort of severe weather watch to go up sometime this afternoon ahead of the cold front, especially if we see some of the clouds begin to scour out.

By far, the most significant severe weather should be to the south across parts of eastern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Likewise the severe weather threat close to Kansas City gets greater the further southeast you go.

Conditions continue to evolve this afternoon for the threat for severe weather today. Dewpoints, although they appeared slow to recover initially, have already made it back to 60 degrees, with a narrow band of deeper moisture just ahead of the dry line in Oklahoma and Eastern Kansas. More of that moisture should make its way into the area this afternoon.

In addition, it appears as though sufficient warming along the dry line is helping to weaken the convective cap as well. If it can continue to weaken the cap this afternoon, we may see a few discrete thunderstorms form along the dry line to our soutwest. If these form, they would have the potential to generate some pretty large hail. While tornadoes are still a possibility, it appears that hail is going to be the biggest concern.

The threat will continue overnight as thunderstorms are more likely to form, with a continued threat for large hail or damaging winds. While we have a slight chance late this afternoon, our best chances for thunderstorms will hold off until tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has gone ahead and put us and areas to the southwest into a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a threat for very large hail.