It’s certainly the talk of the town. We are now two days out from a potential snow event here in Kansas City and the central plains. As I’ve been fielding a bunch of questions today about it, I wanted to give you my latest thoughts regarding our potential snow.
Outside of Kansas City, parts of the OK and TX panhandles into southwest Kansas are under the gun for some dramatic snow totals. These areas could received 10-20 inches of wind-whipped snow. The NWS office in Norman, OK went a little crazy with their forecast discussion last night and even hinted at totals in excess of 30 inches! No matter, these areas have a pretty high likelyhood of seeing some significant snow totals.
For Kansas City, we have many more question marks to our potential for snow. As I mentioned in last night’s podcast, the storm system has showed signs of slowing down a bit, and our chance for snow is now pushed into Saturday. A minor change in the track of the storm will make a world of difference. While this is usually the case with snow events in KC, this is only complicated by the fact that the atmosphere is warmer all around at the end of March. The current track of this storm system, as predicted by some of our computer models, would put the heaviest band of snowfall JUST southeast of KC. A minor shift will make a world of difference. We are still 2 days out, so there will likely be some changes before then on the final track of the storm.
This storm system remains very strong. With quite a bit of lift in this storm, we will see some sigificant “dynamic cooling”. This process will change areas that would be favorable to see rain over to snow. Many times, the computer models tend to underforecast this cooling. After tsome time, we also see this process generate it’s own “cold pool” of air near and west of the center of circulation, making for a larger area of changeover. Along those lines, we could see some thundersnow, and the lift created by these thunderstorms can also set off this dynamic cooling process.
This cooling process is critical for our snow chances. While cooler air will wrap into the back side of the storm, it may not move in until the heaviest precipitation has long moved out of the area. Add this dynamical cooling to the equation, and we go from a chance for snow on the back side of the storm, to a chance for heavy snow during the peak of our precipitation chances. If it’s weaker than I expect, we could go from a chance for accumulating snow to mostly rain chances with a little snow as the storm leaves.
When will it change? With the storm moving slower than it had origionally looked, we may not see a changeover to snow until late in the morning into the afternoon. This also remains a question. The NAM computer model doesn’t change us over until after 1pm. The GFS computer model chances us over during the first half of the morning.
What are my thoughts?
KEEP THIS IN MIND. We are still 2 days away from this event. A LOT can… and likely will change between now and then. Like I mentioned, I still have a lot of questions.
I’d say that there is a strong possibiliity that there will be a band of snow producing accumulations of at least 6 inches close to the Kansas City metro area. It’s possible that some of these areas will receive up to 10 inches of snow. The band of significant snow may only be 15 miles wide around our area. All of us have a chance for some accumulating snow on the order of 1-3 inches. This band of course seeing significantly more.
This will be a heavy, wet snow. We’ll likely see a 1:8 water to snow ratio. That means we have the potential to see 8 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid precipitation. Most snow events have a 1:10 ratio.
I still am unsure of when the changeover will happen, but I’m siding on the later end of the scale; Late in the morning to early afternoon. But when it comes down to it, I don’t have much confidence in the timing right now.
I have some concern for some of the trees that are already growing leaves. These tress may have problems handling the weight of a significant snowfall. Hopefully the leaves are small enough to preclude any significant damage to some of these trees. On the positivie side, most of the trees that are leaving out are smaller, so the threat for widespread power outtages from falling tree limbs onto power lines are minimal.
This is how it looks RIGHT NOW. We still have the potiential to see all rain, but I’m siding with some accumulating snow on Saturday. I’ll know a lot more late tonight and tomorrow as the storm begins to effect parts of western TX, OK, and KS.
BTW: Here the precipitation forecast of two of the computer model’s from the time they switch us to snow. The NAM, and the GFS.
NAM 12z forecast
GFS 12z forecast
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